Polls and Surveys: Not often a many-splendored thing

     It seems that election season is usually the time for a plethora (so many that a person gets sick of them) of polls. Surveys happen all the time, for many reasons, but polls usually happen for elections. Why? Polls are aimed at the future. What do you want to happen in the future? Do you want a nuclear power station in your town? Do you want to vote for Candidate A or do you want to vote for Candidate B (occasionally the poll will be written such that a choice for “neither” is allowed)?

     A survey is more of a gathering of information about what is happening right now. Do you put on your left sock first or your right sock first (Japan loves surveys of this nature)? How do you feel about the economy? Do you think that your local new pattern of “100-year” storms every four years is caused by climate change? How many pets do you have at home?

     Like weather forecasts, it is often true that polls don’t get it right (surveys don’t also but that’s for a different subset of reasons). In fact, many times polls are used in the opposite manner. They are manipulated to create a desired output, recognizing that there is a “winner effect” where people have a tendency to change their minds in order to be part of the “winning” side.

     Even when a poll is not deliberately manipulated to give a desired output, there are problems.

1. The questions must be created such that there is no inherent bias or assumption

2. The polls must be filled out (or answered) by a representative group of people

3. The people answering must have full anonymity — otherwise they may not give their honest answers.

     It is more difficult than one might think to keep bias or assumptions out of questions. “How often do you beat your spouse?” is rather blatant (though I suspect it has occurred on more than one poll). “How bad do you think the economy is?” has the same inherent assumption (that the economy is bad) as the spousal question but may not be as obvious.

     Many polls are multiple choice. But desired responses do not often align completely with one of the choices. The potential answers often have their own bias and assumption. If none of the answers matches what is wanted as the reply then there is a choice — don’t answer or choose the “closest”. But if your desired answer is the opposite of all of the listed possible answers then no answer is all you can do — and the poll will not reflect your opinion.

     It is very hard to get a representative number of people. For elections, they not only need to represent the variety of people voting in appropriate percentages but they must also be people who are going to vote. Younger generations often do not use phones for audible conversations so a phoned poll will be out-of-balance with leaving out many younger people (hopefully active voters). Although becoming less a problem as the technology continues to be more established, older people may be left out of polls if the polls are done via online methods. So, do both. But then the “middle” group may be over-represented.

     Legal voters don’t necessarily all feel comfortable in thinking about more complex issues in languages other than their home language. But polls (and surveys) cannot be created in ALL potential languages and polls are more unlikely to be answered if there is any struggle to complete them.

     We have many different physical, economic, ethnographic, and other areas of the country. Each has their own history and perspective so all must be represented in the polls. Very difficult.

     Finally, anonymity. In many countries, honest answers can be dangerous if the answers can be attributed to specific people. But even in honest democracies, attributed answers may result in unpleasant results (such as being bombarded with pleas for election money) if the person can be connected with the response. The answer may not be private within the house (or other physical location) and there may be intimidation or pressure to answer in a way not truly desired.

     Surveys can have the same types of problems but, since they deal with current existing issues, can change without causing the “chicken and egg” situations.

     The bottom line is that polls can only be treated as potential approximations. Their results should not be used to guide a person’s actions or expectations. If the poll results reinforce your opinions then be pessimistic and if they are contrary to your opinions then try even harder. 

     As mentioned in my 300th blog, this blog is transitioning to a substack newsletter format. If you would like to continue getting my blogs/newsletters, please click here and sign up for a free subscription (if you have money to spare, you are welcome to get a paid subscription). Thank you for reading these. I hope they are of interest, and will continue to be of interest.

Reality: Is made of perceptions

     There were five blind people who were led to an elephant. One person stood by the ear. Another stood by the trunk. One stood by the leg. Yet another was by the tail. The final one was next to the body of the elephant. What were their perceptions of the elephant?

     How would that change if the blind people moved around? What if one felt the tail and a leg, and another a leg and the body? They would have some overlap but would still perceive a different world for the elephant.

     Let’s let those people loose — let them move all around the elephant. They now should have the same amount to be able to feel. Do they have a complete picture? Well, we know they are blind so they will not know the color. They can only feel the surface, so they do not know what is beneath the surface. Even if they could feel beneath, they cannot necessarily understand what they are feeling or the interactions between the various things that they feel.

     What would happen if someone was deliberately trying to fool, or confuse, them? Perhaps they wrap one leg with scratchy sandpaper and another leg with silk. Would this change their perception of the elephant?

     Once upon time there was a mischievous god. They decided to create some discord. There were two rice fields separated by a ridge upon which people could walk without disturbing the plants. The god put on a big hat — blue on the left side and red on the right side. Walking along the ridge, people in the field on the right side saw a person in a red hat. People in the left rice field saw a person in a blue hat. Reaching the end of the ridge, the god turned around — making sure that his hat turned on his head as he moved. Now the hat had the red side on the left and blue on the right — but, since they were walking the opposite direction the same people in the fields saw the same color on the hat that was seen before.

     At the end of the day, the workers all sat down in the communal dining room and, not having a lot of different things to talk about, they talked about the person who walked along the ridge. One group was certain that they had seen them wearing a red hat. The other was certain that they had seen a blue hat. They argued more and more and starting fighting amongst themselves. And the god laughed to see what had been done.

     Each group was certain that they had seen all of the hat — so they were equally certain that they were correct in what they saw.

     Both the god and the persons who wrapped the elephant’s legs were deliberately changing what was presented to the people — causing them to perceive something that wasn’t part of the real object. This type of deception, or fabrication, can happen — and does happen based out of many reasons.

     Sometimes, like in the stories of this god, or the First Nation stories about Coyote, the reasons are not malicious. Sometimes, such distortion and fabrication are designed to promote a deliberately flawed reality for selfish or vindictive reasons. But, even without such deliberate distortion, our ability to perceive the entirety is limited.

     The ideal end goal for perception is to know everything (and recognize when information encountered is false). This is called omniscience — and no mortal (or AI) can possibly have it. Still, the greater the amount of accurate information that can be gathered, compared, and correlated allows a more complete notion of the reality of a subsystem or global entity.

     Given that omniscience is not possible for a human, there must be a reduction in the amount of information present. The first reduction is via access. If you cannot access information then you cannot process it. Search engines indicate that between one and four million books are published in English each year. I may read 200 books per year (my wife reads more). A very small percentage. At any given time, there is information (much of an entertainment nature) streaming, or being broadcast across hundreds, or thousands, of channels at a time. I can only actively watch one at a time. While there are choices as to what books I read and what channels I actively watch, I know in advance that there are many others that I will never access.

     Some people try to examine the maximum amount of information that they can -- and potentially reach a condition of information overload. This happens when so much information is accessed that there is no longer enough ability to access, compare, or evaluate the information. Trying to do the maximum is not helpful. Determining the optimum — the most that one can access usefully — is individual and often determined only after having done such.

     You have an optimum amount of information to work with. How was that information selected? First is access. Second is sensory gating — reducing the amount of information processed to prevent overload. The third is individual discrimination. This is where individual perception can start creating artificial realities. Such realities are externally inconsistent but may artificially create an internal consistency — a circular type of affirmation. It is done by choosing information based on what you want to be true. To a degree, this is the process of confirmation bias. Confirmation bias only allows additional information that reinforces existing beliefs or knowledge already integrated.

     We all have some degree of confirmation bias. Scientists often have confirmation bias where anything that does not agree with current theorems and hypotheses is tossed out. This is useful to prevent threshing (changing opinions or reactions back and forth quickly) but can also hinder the growth of science. Almost every new technology or discovery has to go through these hurdles — some quickly and some very slowly (with a lot of posthumous acknowledgements).

     Our reality is created from our perceptions. Our perceptions are based on a limited amount of information. A reality is closer to a universal reality (one that all agree upon) when information is broadly obtained and checked, correlated, and analyzed BEFORE being accepted or rejected.

     On a personal level, I try to read as many newsletters and articles from a global community. This helps to reduce national bias. I try to study history so I have some background to help me to understand the material. I listen to discussions created by people who both tend towards my perceptions as well as those that oppose my interpretations. And I still fail to have THE “correct” view of reality because of my limitations.

     But we can try — and that is all we can do. 

    As mentioned in my 300th blog, this blog is transitioning to a substack newsletter format. If you would like to continue getting my blogs/newsletters, please click here and sign up for a free subscription (if you have money to spare, you are welcome to get a paid subscription). Thank you for reading these. I hope they are of interest, and will continue to be of interest.

Delays: Travel, Illness, Procrastination, and Trepidition

     Delays. It’s been a while since my last blog. I traveled twice (once outside the US and once inside the US). I came down with Salmonella after one trip and an unusable shoulder/arm after another. But, I could still have gotten something accomplished if I had pushed myself. But I didn’t. Why not?

      I started my blog, Technoglot, to fill a need that I saw to help general non-technical people better understand everyday technology that was continuing to migrate from interesting to essential. I focused on this for the first few years but received few comments and — more importantly — no suggestions as to what areas of technology people might want more information about. I slowly started opening up the subject areas — to talking about issues and things about which, perhaps, people might want to see another point-of-view. And this has continued.

     This is my 300th blog and my first substack posting. I have been looking at moving over to substack for more than a year. I have had more than 175,000 (looks more impressive than 175K doesn’t it?) views over my 17 years of publications. While trying to gain a greater distribution, I tried to use some distribution schemes that didn’t allow “any marketing or commercialism” — so I turned off Google AdWords (turning it back on was a trial and tribulation). By the way, Google AdWords only produced less than $10 over the period of 17 years (what type of corruption were these channels worried about with GoogleAds?) — not enough for them to ever issue a check.

     To summarize, working on my blogs has served my primary purpose pretty well — to give back to the world from whence I have learned things and have obtained support for my life. I might wish for better distribution and I recognize that, if I worked hard at it, that might have been obtained. But, if one’s name is not well known, a focus is needed for such branding/marketing. Joe Blow’s ideas about the universe has limited attraction (though Joe might have the best ideas around).

     But that secondary purpose of supplementing my retirement (and general) income hasn’t turned out so well. For the present, there will be no difference between free and paid subscriptions within substack. That may change as I understand the medium and I get a better grasp on what the readership (if any) wants. But, if extra money is burning a hole in your pocket I am willing to help.

     So, I enter the world of substack. It is one of those many areas where, once you know what you are doing, everything is plain and simple. Getting to that point requires a lot of looking, researching, reading, and finally — just making the leap. I apologize for all current, and future, idiocies I may do within the realm of SubStack. I truly am doing my best..

     Does this blog/post have any purpose other than announcing a couple of milestones (300 POSTS!) and (175K VIEWS!)? And announcing a start within the substack world? Yes — back to that title about delays.

     Every person has delays in their life. Every business encounters delays in their ongoing existence. They can be categorized somewhat. I will use terms that are more applicable to personal life. There are possibly other terms more applicable to business. These fall into the areas of travel, illness, procrastination, and trepidation. There is an additional area of resource blockage (not enough money, time, machine parts, delivery trucks available, …) but this isn’t really about general logistics (which can be a fascinating subject).

     Travel changes things. You don’t have available what you had available before. You have additional things to do (sightsee, explore the area, learn to drive a traffic circle going clockwise rather than counter-clockwise (or vice versa)). Most importantly, schedules must change. These are all great advantages for some purposes (R&R, general enjoyment, etc.) but can really bother the mundane purposes that you may be trying to escape (write a blog, get a report ready, make a customer presentation). No matter how much you may (or may not) enjoy travel — it will cause delays.

     Illness can affect in different degrees. A common cold may just make things a bit slower while food poisoning may prevent you from straying from the bathroom for days. While not called illness in business, such is still possible. An earthquake, fire, or other natural disaster can occur (this will also affect personal lives). Human-made problems also come up — hopefully relatively peaceful but one also has to allow for non-peaceful disruptions.

     Procrastination and trepidation are closely related. Procrastination happens when there is nothing stopping you from proceeding — or you can handle anything that might hinder you — but you do not proceed. There can be many reasons behind such. Fear of failure. Fear of success. Fear of loss of excuses. Many of the underground excuses arise out of fear.

     Trepidation is associated with a particular set of fears — fear of making mistakes, fear of not doing well enough, fear of rejection, fear of retaliation (or active rejection), fear of being ignored. Starting a new business may easily arouse trepidation. (And starting within a new medium may also arouse such. Certainly, getting started within Substack has had a lot of challenges. Some have been achieved but there are sure to be a number in the future.)

     Eventually, a decision has to made. Does the desired event have sufficient value to cause a desire to overcome obstacles? That is a question answered only by each person, or company, in their own way.

     As mentioned above, this blog is transitioning to a substack newsletter format. If you would like to continue getting my blogs/newsletters, please click here and sign up for a free subscription (if you have money to spare, you are welcome to get a paid subscription). Thank you for reading these. I hope they are of interest, and will continue to be of interest.

Think twice, speak once: Or how to let the referee do its job

 

     Back when I was growing up (and still am doing such), I was very quick in listening to what was said and replying -- either with word humor (not always appreciated) or a particular insight (which may or may not have been universally agreed upon). Since I probably was (and am) on the autistic spectrum (as are two of my sons), my connection to the social environment was not the best in the world. In fact, there were a lot of times when the general interpretation of things and the way I looked at things just didn't work together at all. For one thing, I actively hated euphemisms (still do -- I think they steal from language). For another, people often do not say what they really mean. How often have you heard the phrase "oh, you know what I mean"? Perhaps many "neurotypical" people do such. I didn't.

     This meant that that fast responses sometimes got me into trouble. (Sometimes it just got me a vacant stare and a "huh".) Sometimes people felt hurt even though that was not my intention. Sometimes everyone agreed it was correct but it was considered extremely impolite to have said so. Sometimes I got a groan. Some responses were innocuous. Others hurt. A few got me in trouble. I remember one time, when I was about nine years old, we were going to visit a neighbor. My mother informed me to "find something nice to say about their place". We went to their place and was walking around and they had a rather nice puzzle put together on one table covered with about an eighth of an inch of dust. I wiped my finger along the top to better see the puzzle colors. Remembering my mother's advice, I noted "this is a really nice puzzle ... but it sure is dusty". I can't remember the neighbor's reaction but my mother was not happy.

     Many people on the autistic spectrum do not naturally interpret social cues, or make use of them. But what comes naturally to most can be painfully learned by others if desired enough. I decided that it was important to me to do such. According to studies (and, as I have said before -- if you don't like a study result -- wait for the next one), there comes a time (maybe in your 30s), when trained observances can surpass natural observances. That doesn't preclude occasional bombs -- conversations are NOT always sensible or logical.

     Beyond the challenges of neurodiversity, there is the aspect of culture that applies to everyone in most societies. A fast response, a "witty" response sometimes "wins" within the group. This is where the THINK philosophy comes into play. Is it (T)rue? Is it (H)elpful? Is it (I)nspiring? Is it (N)ecessary? and is it (K)ind? This philosophy tries to facilitate conversation by making sure that what is said is a constructive item and can help both to learn and grow -- and recognize the caring of each.

     Great theory -- and often is useful and even successful. But each of these questions is still subject to interpretation. It may be true according to gobs of research and still not believed by the other (particularly in data silo days). It may be meant to be helpful in bringing about a common field of discussion but not everyone wants that. Inspiring and Necessary bring about reasons of motivation and not everyone will agree to that. But KIND is possible. Kind keeps it relevant and not personal. A fact is for discussion. A situation is to be looked upon. The accident may be unfortunate and preventable but the person who makes the mistake can still be well-meaning. Personal attacks are non-constructive, irrelevant, and not useful.

     So, it is possible to learn how to interpret. It is still important to have TIME to interpret. A fast retort, a great "zinger" just is not compatible. Similar to the idea of a little devil on one shoulder whispering bad ideas to you and a little angel reminding you of good things on the other -- I picture a little referee on my shoulder. They intercept, allow time for judgement and decisions, and then let go or stop.

     When cutting lumber, the saying is "measure twice, cut once". For responses, it is all to the good to "think twice, speak once". Do you self-monitor what you say? If so, how do you do it?

Anchors Aweigh: The Costs of Accumulation

 

     Almost ten years ago (December 31, 2015), I wrote about "the houseboat philosophy". A summary would be that houseboats can only have so much weight on them before they sink. Thus, when one thing comes on board, something must leave. (Of course, a little allowance is made for temporary dinner guests.)

     Of late, I seem to have been seeing an awful lot of advertisements for storage units. And I don't watch many programs with advertisements. It seems similar to those advertisements for stomach upset or feelings of bloat or being overfull. They try to address the symptoms and divert you away from the actual problems. Overeat? Have a pill to fight against the effects. Eat less? Don't even think about it (literally).

     In the area of storage, there are always times when such is truly reasonable and necessary. Someone dies and their living quarters needs to be emptied to allow it to be sold or occupied by the next folks. No time to do the sorting, selling, and finding other places for items. And sometimes the storage may be used for something that is really used -- but not all of the time. Ski equipment in the summer is probably only excess stuff to have on hand. Camping equipment may only be used during the non-winter months.

     But, most of the time, it is a matter of accumulation and overflow. Once again, if that overflow was treated as something to be dealt with in a timely fashion then temporary storage might be prudent and useful. But often it isn't.

     For many of us, those items that pile up each have memories associated with them. How can I possibly throw away my kindergarten report card (from 60 years ago)? This was Great-Aunt Mabel's baby blanket, we have to keep that -- while none of the next generation have any memories of their distant relative.

     Personally, one of my largest dilemmas is the amount of photos accumulated. Current, and future, generations may have no idea of this problem as almost all such is now done digitally. Get more and more storage. We're using this method -- but we still have thousands of photos that are not digitized. Photos of your grandmother as a baby. Digitize and trash it? Sure -- not easy. And if not annotated then the next generations will not have a clue as to who any of the people in those sepia-colored photographs might have been.

     But accumulation has both its direct and indirect costs. Whether it is internal space or external storage, the accumulation requires space. Space costs money. If you are looking for something that is among 100 cubic feet (or 3 cubic meters), scattered all over, it is much easier to search for that item among 35 cubic feet (or a single cubic meter). Clutter is hand-in-hand with inefficiency of searches. I have "replaced" a lot of items that I have been certain that I had (and, possibly, later found) leading to duplication and unnecessary purchases. This is both frustrating and expensive.

     Not everyone is happy to work towards minimalism -- nor is our economy oriented towards that philosophy. But, a bit of work towards eliminating excess (with both food and possessions) can make our lives easier and, perhaps, allow a bit more spreading of wealth among those who have need of it.

Units and Assumptions: Those crazy decimal points and junker rentals

 

     Back in the Jurassic ages when I was walking my dinosaur to school, I did an on-campus interview with Bell Laboratories. Passing that, I was invited to interview in Colorado and New Jersey. My wife was only willing to move to Colorado but Bell Labs insisted that I interview at three places. My luggage with my interviewing suit, of course, was misplaced on the flight to Colorado. I asked the person who came to pick me up if dressing up was necessary -- they said no and I put the tie (I had an extra in my hand luggage) back in the hotel room.

     Four months later, time to find someplace to live in Colorado near Western Electric/Bell Labs. Came down out of the flight and went to pick up the rental car. "Where's your credit card?" What? Very few people in my area of Kansas had a credit card and I certainly didn't have one. "We won't rent to you without a credit card." We didn't have one so we asked what they would suggest. They referred us to a "rent-a-junk" agency who, with a very large deposit (about twice the weekly rental), were willing to rent a car. On to the hotel, not quite the same story but close. We put down a deposit for four nights rent (we had brought a lot of cash because I tend to be a mite overcautious) and they let us stay. The equivalent thing could happen ten years ago with cell phones.

     On that same trip we saw billboards all around. "Buy a house in this development, prices starting in the low hundreds." Wow, what a bargain. My mother had purchased a house in our rural town only six years before for $3000. Now, I assumed that the houses weren't actually $100 but the thought that they were talking about hundreds of thousands was incredible.

     One of my sons discussed graphics boards with me the other day. The movers had (among other damage) broken the graphics card connected to the mother board of his brother's computer (who was working -- but not yet in his field of graduation (BS, Computer Science, anyone need a hard-working person without post-college CS experience?) -- and decided he needed a functioning computer to continue job applications and, thus, now had a new computer and donated the old one to his brothers). He needed a functioning graphics board so he started talking about Nvidia GPU cards and called them "380", "470", and so forth. Looking them up on Amazon, I couldn't find any such boards -- it turned out that (as, he stated, his friends also did) he had the habit of dropping the second zero because it was always a constant ("0"). So, "380" was said instead of "3080" and "470" instead of "4070".

     We founded our company, TeleSoft International, as a distributed company back in 1991. As such, we were all doing "remote" work long before the term was brought out and recognized over the past few years. That didn't mean (and doesn't mean currently) that there weren't occasions when it wasn't preferred to be face-to-face. One time, I needed to head (from Boulder, Colorado) to Washington, DC. I received directions from one of our employees and headed off.

     I was greeted with a heavy snowstorm. On the good side, there was less traffic (and I am pretty experienced driving on snowy/icy roads). However, I also had a major problem. Their directions referred to something called the "Beltway". Now, those of you who live in cities that have their own beltways know quite well that it is a description rather than a name. There were no beltways in Colorado and, to the best of my knowledge, still aren't.

     So, there I was, driving through the snow, trying to find something called the Beltway. It wasn't on signs, it wasn't on maps (this is before smartphones or ubiquitous GPS units). So, it was time to ask for directions. The person at the gas center laughed at me but told me that, for Washington, it meant I-495 which went around Washington, DC. For our employee, the word "beltway" was something that "everyone" knew. Alas, I didn't fit into the "everyone" category.

     Each of us believes that the way we live, and what we know, is the same for everyone. Those who try hard to keep expanding our experiences may fall into that trap less than others but no one can escape completely. I could keep expanding on surprises and hurdles which have occurred but I am sure you can think of many on your own. What type of assumption on the part of another person left you wondering what was going on? Or assumptions of your own?

Letter versus Spirit: contracts for better or for worse

 

     It’s been more than a month since my last blog. I have been avoiding it because I really prefer to write them on my iMac. I have now given in and am writing on my iPad. I love my iPad but its worst abilities are associated with files and writing. Still, it’s all I have right now. Why, you may ask?

     In short, I was scammed. At the end of February, our landlord informed us they were selling our rental townhome at the end of our lease. We requested, and obtained, an extra month so we could be there for one of our son’s graduation from college. (He now has a BS in Computer Science — but cannot yet find an entry-level position that doesn’t require experience.)

     Time to get packing — and find a mover for a very popular time to move. First estimate was very high. Received another estimate saying that, for the same cubic footage, they would charge 2/3 the price. Better Business Bureau (BBB) rating A+, Department of Transportation (DOT) record clear, trustpilot 4.0, found a Google rating for a company of the same name at 4.0. Sounds solid, right?

     We had our household goods packed and taken away — we assumed to be shipped. Our household goods were delivered yesterday, on July 10. Yes, that is 6 weeks — 42 days. We have spent half that time on the floor in sleeping bags and half on slowly leaking air mattresses. Cooking was shifted to eating out for a few days and then Goodwill shops were hit for inexpensive necessities and friends loaned us a few things. Not easy, but considering how much so many other people are suffering, still pretty good.

     So, how could this occur? Ah, that ubiquitous contract. Like the EULA, it is presented as a fait acompli. And, it is presented at the point when you have persuaded yourself you just have to have the service/product offered. Even if you read all of the “fine print”, the implication is that this just applies to edge cases. So, you “sign”. And, most of the time, that’s okay. All turns out well.

     It turns out well if both parties strive to achieve the basic purpose of the contract — but that “fine print” gives lots of leeway, and escape paths, for the originator of the document. The “spirit “ of the contract is not fulfilled, but the “letter” is. Thus, this 42 day delivery is covered by the contract — but totally ignores all commitments and the basic purposes of the transaction. After two weeks, I reread the contract slowly and carefully. It says “any verbal promises, assurances, or remarks have no validity”. In other words, everything said by the person persuading you is just “hot air”.

     So, read the contract or not — if both parties are striving to perform well and fairly then those items in the “fine print” won’t matter. And if they do NOT plan to deliver as desired then that “fine print” may be grist for the lawyers but it won’t do you much good except to recognize the worst, still legal, things they might do.