Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Percentages: A desire to claim authority

 

     Stereotypes often have a grain of truth within. How large of a grain? It varies a lot. Any time that you find yourself saying -- Xs do this or Ys do that -- you know that there are those who don't fit that criterion. Many males do not like to ask for directions (in my household, my wife is the one who doesn't like to ask). Women, in general, have faster reflexes and higher pain thresholds. Much of the time, such statements are stated as absolutes. "Men don't ask for directions." This is true even when we are quite aware of exceptions -- with either men asking for directions or other genders not wanting to ask.

     But yet another generalization which doesn't fit everyone -- people (especially men) want to be perceived as being an authority -- knowing what they are talking about. "70% of all men have dandruff." "93% of all drivers don't come to a complete stop at stop signs." People could easily say "most drivers don't come to a complete stop" but which sounds more as if the person has done their research and knows what they are talking about -- "most drivers ..." or "93% of all drivers ..."?

     How do such percentages come about? Occasionally, the person may have read a paper stating some percentage. That percentage may, or may not, have been accurate and the person may, or may not, have remembered the percentage correctly. But there WAS some percentage associated with the event so recreate it.

    "Most becomes 70%." "Almost all becomes 94%." "Almost no one become 1%." You may have some favorite numbers that you use.

     This doesn't happen just in everyday life. It also happens in studies. Each study has a statistical range for all numbers and there is a general recognition that there may be constraints that have been omitted from the study or aspects of the population pool might make a difference with other followup studies. Yet, the results don't get summarized as "35% chance with a +/- error range of 5% under specific conditions."

     Finally, there is sloppy usage of well-defined words. The word "cause" is an oft-misused one. Somehow, in the summaries, "correlates to" or "seems to usually be present" becomes "causes". If A causes B then EVERY time A exists then B happens. There aren't a lot of absolutes in life. Even doses of arsenic will not necessarily cause death (though it certainly can raise the likelihood -- botox or plutonium have even smaller likelihoods of not being fatal). Each time I read of a study that indicates causation, I say to myself "uh-huh. How about under this condition? How about this 'exception' that I read about? ..."

     Does this apply to you? Will at least 82.5% of you read this and think about how it may apply within your life?

User Interfaces: When and Who should be designing them and why?

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