Monday, October 21, 2019

It's Not the Change, It's the Rapidity of Change


     Humans can be looked at as the "adapting animal". We have a history of adapting to different environments as well as altering those environments to make them more compatible. We do this more than any other animal. Not that animals (and plants, to a lesser degree) have not adapted to a wide variety of conditions -- they have. But they have little ability to live well within a different environment to which they have adapted.
     Humans largely adapt with use of technology. Clothing is a huge advantage to allow continued survival and activity within an annually changing climate. Other animals can do this to a limited extent with added fur in the winter or hibernation but it affects their daily activity. Fire! There are good reasons why the achievement of (usually) controlled fire is considered perhaps the most important discovery/ability of humans. Good old Prometheus! Stealing fire from the gods and giving it to us poor mortals. Fire (or controlled heat with advancing technology) kept predators at bay, broke down food elements to allow better nutrition, allowed us to roast marshmallows around the campfire, and (in conjunction with shelters) changed the seasons for us.
     On the other end of the temperature scale, air conditioning has allowed greater comfort within warm seasons or climates. During this period of climate change, air conditioning has been shifting from a comfortable luxury to a life-sustaining requirement. On July 12, 2019 a temperature of 108.6 degrees Fahrenheit (42.6 degrees Celsius) was reached in Paris. In Kuwait, on July 21, 2016, a temperature of 128.7 degrees Fahrenheit (53.7 degrees Celsius) was recorded. In India, these types of temperatures, combined with droughts partially caused by the receding of the Himalayan glaciers, have proven quite deadly in the countrysides.
     Adapting via the use of technology inherently requires energy though, by use of a combination of older architectures and new materials, there is the possibility of reducing energy needs with long-term buildings and structures to better adapt to changing climates. Thick insulating walls that can bring in cooler night-time air or retain heat/cool with less ongoing energy use. Digging deep into the earth (which use of caves, both natural and artificial, have been used throughout the ages) can achieve better thermal stability.
     As ocean levels rise, coastlines move backward toward higher ground. In the case of islands, that may cause much of the area to disappear. Water, being necessary for life in different ways, has always been a local attraction for living space. Location, location, location -- as the real estate agents declare. By rivers, lakes, and oceans, humans have built up cities and other concentrations of population. Because of this, even though the percentage of land lost by means of the rise of ocean level is rather small -- the direct effect on human populations is much greater.
     Compensation for climate change is possible via adapted architecture or technology/energy use but it is not economically feasible for most locations -- mass migrations are starting to happen and will continue to accelerate.
     Humans can continue to adapt with the use of technology/energy and ingenuity. When change occurs, as is typical over recorded history (not counting cataclysms such as the dinosaur-extinguishing asteroid or global cold waves caused by sulfur and particulate emissions of huge volcanic eruptions), on a slow extended basis over centuries, humans can (and will) adapt. But changes that occur over decades -- within a human lifespan! These are changes that require global coordination, planning, and cooperation. Even with such, it only facilitates the mass migrations, changing of local food crops, and abandonment of no-longer-livable areas.
     Within this blog, I have concentrated on the effects of climate change directly on humans. But humans are not the only life upon the planet (though sometimes such is ignored). The great coral reefs are dying and polar bears are losing their habitats. Some areas are turning into deserts while other areas undergo periodic flooding which affects not only crops but plants and animals in general. Extinctions rise in number. How will the food chains adapt -- and can they? Humans can, and will, adapt but the landscape of the future will likely be quite different.

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