Conspiracy Theories: Opening up secrets or removing trust ... or a bit of both?

      I have a favorite bumper sticker. I haven’t seen it for a while, but it says:

“Just Because I’m Paranoid Doesn’t Mean They Aren’t Out to Get Me”

     A “conspiracy theory” is generally defined as “a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators”. A group of people conspire to make something happen. The group can be a political group, or an ethnic group, or even a family group (certain rich dynasties seem to attract conspiracy theories).

     Just as in the bumper sticker above, it is difficult to disprove a conspiracy theory. On the other hand, there are usually “holes” in the chain of “evidence” that connects the group to the event. (That doesn’t matter to those who want to believe the theory.)

     These holes include circular reasoning (X happens because of Y, Y happens because of A, A happens because or X). They include lack of proof of presence (we don’t know where Ms. Q was at the time, perhaps they were at THIS location doing that). Motivation is often connected to pre-conceived notions as to character or beliefs about what they are trying to do in more general terms. Denials cannot be true because the denials come from “the guilty parties”.

     My personal feeling is that the most distinctive aspect of conspiracy theories is reverse reasoning. A person starts at the desired conclusion and the group that they want to tie to that conclusion and then start building “evidence” that connects the two. A good way of recognizing a conspiracy theory is that it usually only talks about the two end-points — the group/people and the event/conclusion. If pressed, some may be able to point to in-between logic which can then be examined. But most people passing along conspiracy theories don’t know of any (if any exists) “evidence” that the endpoints are connected.

     If conspiracies never happened then they could all be dismissed without evaluation. They sound crazy so they must be crazy. Back to the above bumper sticker. Conspiracies can happen and we have all heard something of the nature “it must be true, I could never make up something that crazy”. The aspect of being unbelievable makes them more believable simply because life is unpredictable and events happen that we could never explain.

     So, if a conspiracy theory MIGHT be true, why does it matter? Primarily because, most of the time, it is usually NOT true. As someone (among many) who tends to make up statistics when I don’t have anything solid at hand — I would say that 98% of conspiracy theories are not true. The exact number is likely to be wrong but it is certainly a high percentage. The reason this is so is due to the reverse logic — building up a “case” based on what we want. There are so many possible paths that can be taken, from the end to the supposed decision starting point, that having the entire logic chain being correct just fades away into unlikelihood.

     And believing when it isn’t true can cause a lot of damage. It can also cause violent action based on the incorrect assumptions. Since conspiracy theories tie specific groups or individuals to the conclusion, it can be very tempting for those who have chosen to believe them to follow the short-term approach of eliminating that group or individual.

     What about those few cases where it is true? Well, as the saying goes — “a broken clock is right twice a day”. If a conspiracy theory is true then the same conclusions and connections can be achieved via a more direct investigation.

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Train Wrecks: When you can see it coming

 

     We have all encountered it -- though it is much harder to recognize when it is concerned with our own actions. We see something happening on the street, in the office, with our children. If the sequence of events does not change (and, often, what we observe is something that is very hard to change) then problems are going to occur. Possibly very bad ones.

     I call these "train wrecks". The name comes out of seeing a car (hopefully already abandoned) stuck on the train tracks with the train coming along. If I am watching a movie at home and I see a train wreck developing then I will often start pacing the floor. I may even turn the movie off, or pause it, to avoid seeing it unfold. (If watching in a movie theater, I grit my teeth and just wait for it to be over -- an advantage to going to see the movie at a theater.)

     The same thing happens when I am reading a book. I see an impending train wreck and I close the book. It may be a week or two before I accept the issue and I can turn the movie on again or open the book. If a book has multiple train wrecks in it I may abandon it and never complete it.

     Why do train wrecks bother me so much? Train wrecks occur in many successful movies and books and television series. It appears that it does not bother many people nearly as much as it does me.

     I have decided that it is an occupational hazard. I have been in the computer programming/architecture/management field for 45+ years. A large part of success in the field is structured thought and organization. Computers, and microprocessors, are very, very stupid -- they do EXACTLY what you tell them (barring hardware problems) -- they just do them very, very quickly. If you structure the program properly then it can do a LOT of tiny little simple things fast enough that it can appear to be doing complicated things quickly.

     So, how does that relate to not being able to watch train wrecks? Having a brain that has been taught that if A causes B then B will always come after A means that when I see A, my brain starts saying "B! B! B!" I start wanting to yell at the book or movie screen. "Don't do A. If you do then B is going to happen." Maybe it is a bit more complicated. Maybe it is "If A exists and choice B is taken then result G will happen. If choice B is not taken then result J will happen." So, I'll start screaming "take choice B!"

     But those characters in the movies or within the books never seem to listen to me.

     So, what about situations where the person CAN hear you? They potentially COULD take choice B if they wanted. More often than not (or, at least, so it subjectively seems) they ignore you. As a parent, people tend to tell you "they have to experience it for themselves". So your child doesn't take choice B and you have to be prepared to help clean up the mess.

     Occasionally -- in movies, books, or real life -- not taking choice B will NOT lead to result J. Maybe some outside event occurs (in the script or pages) to change the outcome. Maybe you were incorrect in analyzing the base condition, A, and therefore the results from the choice differ. But even if the result turns out different than expected you still spend the time waiting for the train wreck.

     So, please -- protect me, and the people around me, from train wrecks. Consider the consequences.

Troll attack: the new playground bully of the Internet

    The more that a person uses social media, the more likely it is that you will be the subject of a troll attack. Like most situations of being attacked, the most direct way of avoiding such an attack is to not be present. Within social media, this means do not post -- do not show any indication that you exist. For some people, this works pretty well -- they "lurk" in the background and notice what is happening in other people's lives and what are the topics that others are interested in discussing.
     There is nothing wrong with passive use of social media -- unless there is something important going on about which you want to give your opinion. Or some event is occurring of which you are particularly proud -- maybe an anniversary or an award that your child has won. Or you keep encountering situations where you say to yourself -- "yes, that is possibly true -- but this other point, which I think is much more important, keeps being missed". Perhaps they keep talking about point B and they don't talk about point A which is related but not the same.
     Pride, knowledge, a desire to contribute all may add to the reasons why you may want to actively participate. But, once you are visible, you can (and probably will) be attacked.
     You may have heard about flame wars -- which are related to troll attacks. In both cases, the person attacking is primarily making personal attacks -- the messages have little, if any, relation to what was actually said. Many times, there is no way to tell from the attack whether the original message was read at all. However, the sneakiest (and most hurtful) troll attacks occur when they DO mention something that is somewhat relevant to what you have said -- because it can seem like the personal attack is based on some part of your message. It isn't.
     Why would a person conduct a troll attack? It truly is the same situation as a "playground" (or workplace, or other locale) bully. First, they are angry. You don't know why but they are angry. Perhaps they lost their job or were refused a promotion in a job or their child was struck by an unlicensed (and uninsured) driver or they dropped a bowling ball on their foot or they were just screamed at by their mother or cousin. You just plain do not know. The only thing you know is that they are angry.
     Second, they want to hurt others. Why do they want to hurt others? Why do they want to hurt you? Unfortunately, many people seem to feel that if others are feeling badly, or are being treated badly, then they -- in comparison to the others -- are doing better. This happens with various prejudices as well as in the arena of bullying.
     Why are they attacking you? Well, it is possible that your message mentioned a keyword -- or "hot button" -- something about which they have an entire set of preset ideas and emotions. Am I saying that they ARE addressing your message? No -- not at all. They are still creating a personal attack based on anger. They are not listening (reading), analyzing, researching, thinking, or anything that really is concerned with the topic. They are reacting in anger because they are angry.
     Why else might they choose you to attack? It might be because your message shows some indication that you may be vulnerable to attack -- it indicates insecurity or that you are hurting -- and there are also "-ist" attacks based on peripheral things like religion or pigmentation or ethnic origin or such. They attack because you seem to be a person who can be attacked.
     What do you do if you are attacked? Personally, I suggest to do nothing. Like other bullies, if they do not get anything back to feed their anger, they will choose a different target. (It is conceivable, but unlikely, that they will even reconsider what they have said and try a different response -- at which point in time it is up to you whether to respond.) It may be useful for you to create a reply -- but never, never send it -- in order to allow emotional responses to find a form.
     It is possible that others will come to your defence -- which may have some effectiveness unless they also start attacking from anger rather than addressing the contents of the messages.
     Disagreements occur in life -- and they occur on the Internet. When the contents of messages are addressed, researched, explained, expanded upon, and treated as a bit of information within a much larger pool of information, those disagreements can lead to growth, change, and continued exchanges of ideas. When people attack the person who writes the message then there is no route to constructive response. It is an emotion not a thought and they may have reasons to be angry -- but they do not have the right to address that anger upon you.
     How do you deal with flames and troll attacks? Do you have any methods that work to decrease them?