Changes arriving for the Future: Sometimes necessary things don't just spontaneously happen

     Back in 1811, the Luddite movement started in Nottingham, England. It was composed primarily of weavers and home textile workers who had lost their jobs as the looms and cloth production plants became automated. People who had developed skills all their lives, sometimes as a third or fourth generation craftsperson, found themselves with no way to support themselves and family. They would mask themselves and destroy factory equipment, trying to regain their livelihood.

     Of course, the tides of change overwhelmed them. Many suffered. Most survived and retrained with nostalgic stories of their past lives. They had no support from the English government which gave full violent support to the owners of the factories.

Technology changes whether we want it to or not

     This is not an uncommon scenario throughout history. The advancement of the automobile pushed horses (literally) out to pasture and changed roads, use of land, and an entire industry which went from supporting the living horse to support of the “iron horse” (which term was primarily applied to locomotive engines but could apply, in principle, to the personal automobile). As Danny Devito says in “Other People’s Money”, a couple of suppliers of horse harnesses and “buggy whips” survived and they probably made “the best buggy whips ever”. But the vast majority of leather workers had to find other outlets or trades.

     As is true with the climate, people are used to change. Humans have survived throughout the centuries because they are adaptable. They make tools, they move, they change their daily habits. But a mass of people can adapt to change that takes place over multiple generations (hundreds of year) much more easily than they can over a period of a couple of years or even a decade.

     Self-service options are available at more and more stores and fast food restaurants. At the grocery store, my wife and I avoid the self-checkouts. Why? Though, by ourselves, we do not make much difference we are putting on the brakes, just a little, on a transition that is happening too quickly for people to adapt to.

Rapid change requires coordination, including climate change

     Some islands (primarily in the Pacific Ocean) with only low elevation are disappearing. Their people need someplace to move to. Some areas that have crops used to regular rainfall are having periods of drought on a more frequent basis. They need crops that are bred for the newer climate and/or different crops that will work in the new climate. The same holds for areas that are now experiencing more rainfall — especially when it occurs in multiple brief periods causing flash floods and mudslides. New reservoirs may be needed and, preferably, they need to be designed such that they do not disrupt the local ecology too badly. I fear greatly what will happen as the glaciers, providing major sources of water to large populations, disappear.

     100-year-floods are now occurring every five years. Hurricanes are stronger and more frequent. Tornadoes are happening in areas of the US that have no recent memory of tornadoes. It is too soon to know if earthquakes, and reactivated volcanoes, have generally increased but there certainly have been a few global ones that were unexpected. When they happen off the coast, tsunamis need to be allowed for.

     Such phenomena are occurring now. In the relatively near future, they are likely to get worse. Population shifts need to be coordinated between governments. Support, in both transition subsidization as well as hybridization and crop planning, for farmers and resource harvesters needs to be increased. New building regulations need to be made to have housing better resistant to new weather disasters and climatic situations. Is your government actively working on such? The government in the US is definitely not.

Technology changes directly lead to economic needs.

     Some technology changes can make smooth transitions. People typing on computer keyboards is not much different from typing on typewriters (though the ease of mistake correction can lead to “bad” typing habits). Using calculators (or calculator apps on phones) is not that much different than using slide rules, although I am sure the manufacturers of slide rules would not agree with me. I received a beautiful bamboo slide rule for my high school graduation. Small iterations are noticeable but not alarming. Most people can adapt.

     The Luddites saw a transformation in a very few years that displaced their skills entirely. Right now, executives are being told all kinds of things about what AI can do and they are leery of continuing business as usual. Perhaps they are right but they are also running into situations where AI can NOT improve things in the ways they were told, or hoped. This AI bubble is making everything shaky and there is a decent possbility that a large section of workers will not just have to learn new skills in their profession but may have to change professions.

     There is a general consensus that AI will displace many administrative and clerical jobs. It is much less certain about the technology sector. Some high level administrators are loudly proclaiming that they can get rid of 90% of their staff. Others indicate only a minor change (primarily a requirement of AI experience before hiring). Only time will tell. However, the delay, and uncertainty, is putting new graduates in Computer Science through purgatory. Two of my sons are among them. Other disciplines, and recent graduates, are also affected but not as much as within technology majors.

     Consider a store, in which one quarter of its staff deals with collecting money from customers in transactions of buying products. If you have lots of stores no longer needing one quarter of its staff that adds up to a lot of people.

Will there be jobs available for those who want them?

     No one knows. Historically, technology changes have left holes that were rapidly filled as new technology led to new job types and positions. This change is somewhat different however in that both the repetitive labor jobs (automation) and creative/interpretative jobs (AI) are being assaulted. It is pretty well certain that new types of jobs will be needed and there must be a market for them in order to work within existing economic models.

     There is a definite possibility of further increases in income inequality. With continued automation and AI increments, a business might be able to reduce staff by 25 to 40%. Presumably, the workers remaining are the ones with the greatest experience and skills to continue to be useful in the business. If they are paid in accordance with their contributions then profits will be distributed in a more equal fashion. If the remaining staff continues to be paid the same as before, then profits will rise and be directed to the pockets of owners of capital and stockholders, which will increase income inequality.

     Populations continue to increase their average ages and the numbers in their oldest brackets. This is happening at the same time as population growth levels off or shrinks. Health care needs are expected to grow considerably but the economic system in the US does not support this and the US healthcare system is more and more expensive and much less dependable (on purpose to increase profits).

     Jobs that require physical presence should be safe through this shift in the job market. Trades (electricians, plumbers, carpenters, …) should be safe until automation/robotics is adequately flexible to do the same type of work. Social/health work will continue to grow as population ages and population pressures increase. In order for such to be paid, some changes in the infrastructure will be needed. Jobs requiring originality, creativity, and aesthetic judgement should continue to be safe and even potentially expanding. Note that it can be envisioned that continued advances of AI and automation might still put these positions in danger.

     What would those potential new jobs be? Most of them would exist in the “soft”, non-physical, job areas. The incorporation of such may require economic changes. The spread of wealth, or reduction of income inequality, would allow greater use of, and payment for, such new “soft” professions. That will be greatly resisted.

Conclusion

     Humans have survived for thousands of years because they can adapt to changes. But, for rapid change, coordination and planning is needed to minimize suffering and thrashing. In addition, concentration of wealth and resources to a very minor section of the population will make it much more difficult to create new job niches and categories with livable wages.

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Displacement: Physical and Economic

     Life is change. It can be slow, fast, or abrupt — but it happens. Our planet has gone through changes throughout its history. Asteroids have hit the planet. Volcanoes have caused short-lived, but deadly, global winters for the planet. We have had Ice Ages and receding periods. Continents have split apart and merged.

     We are currently in a global warming period emerging faster than has happened in any other recorded period. This is based on comparisons with historical geologic and ice core readings. It is due to increases of greenhouse gases which prevent heat from escaping the earth’s atmosphere and which causes a change in the balance of energy. The oceans are warming and that gives a greater heat/energy source for creation of larger, more frequent, drastic weather events such as droughts, floods, storms, hurricanes and — yes — even blizzards. Almost all scientists agree that humans have greatly contributed to those greenhouse gases. It is not as certain as to whether it still would have happened without humans — but, if so, not nearly as quickly.

     But it IS happening and it’s happening quickly. The changes in weather patterns are forcing changes in crops grown in different areas. The rise in sea level threatens coastlines and many island nations, with much of their area to be below estimated future sea levels, are making plans for migration (or emigration) of much of their population. Larger, non-island, countries will have to deal with coastlines receding inland with established coastal development going under the water. Other large-scale displacements of people will happen because of changes in availability in amounts of potable water. More energy in the system can power many different events and 100-year-floods become 5-year-floods.

     People are not displaced solely because of physical reasons. The tides of change in the economic arena can move people even more than an earthquake.

     The name “Luddite” (named for Ned Ludd who destroyed some mechanical equipment in 1779 out of frustration with changes happening) can be found in literature around 1811. In this region of time, the “Industrial Revolution” was taking place. What once needed ten people to do the manual labor for a task could, with machines, be done with one person (trained differently and with a different set of daily duties). What happened to the other nine? They were unemployed — and, since there were a lot of instances of this happening in the textile industry, there were a LOT of unemployed people without any type of modern “safety net”. They had been displaced by the new technology and machinery.

     Many of the newly unemployed workers had done the same type of work all of their lives. The companies that they previously worked for had no legal obligation for generosity and compassion to help the unemployed workers — nor did the religious leaders of the time urge such!

     Over the years, technology has replaced technology. As Danny DeVito says in “Other People’s Money” (not the exact words) — “I’ll bet that the last company that made buggy whips made the absolutely most wonderful buggy whips ever”. But the buggy and coach have traveled over the hills unlikely to return.

     Over the past 50 years, we have had white-collar labor practices be replaced by programs and computers — and blue-collar positions replaced by automation. It has caused discomfort and displacement but manageable. Now, the process continues to accelerate. Though we have yet to see just how effective, and useful, current AI methods are within society, if they come even close to the use as hoped for by businesses, we could displace 10% to 20% of the labor force. These are not people who have yet to find a job. These are people for whom no job exists. What happens with them? Desperate people do desperate things. A universal base income might keep them alive but there are so many other societal aspects that blend into that and other possibilities.

     While this is something that I have said, and will say, on a disgustingly regular basis; we have problems to approach and work towards solving — but the first overriding problem is getting people to talk to, and work with, each other to work to solve them.

     But we can do it if we want to do such.

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Energy Transfer: Fuel for Climate Change

 

     The global sea temperatures keep rising. So? Of course, there are problems associated directly with the extra heat of the water -- melting icebergs in particular and endangerment of animals in vulnerable ecosystems such as polar bears. Then there are the secondary effects of that extra water being put into the oceans from the melting of the icebergs -- islands going under water and coasts receding.

     The largest, most immediate, effects are from the actual temperature rise. Heat is energy. For food energy, that is measured in Calories (or kilocalories) [see my blogs on Science and Nutrition]. In the area of physics, the units are Joules (or kilojoules -- 1 Calorie == 4.18 kilojoules). Calories are measured directly in accordance with the heat of water. The definition of a Calorie (1 "large" Calorie is equal to 1000 "little" calories -- we normally talk about Calories) is the amount of energy needed to raise the temperature of 1 liter of water 1 degree Celsius.

     So, every degree (Celsius) of heat increased in each liter of water is an extra Calorie (or 4.18 kilojoules) of energy stored as heat. Estimates vary a lot, but there are about 14,000,000,000,000,000,000 liters of water in the Earth's oceans. So, by raising the temperature of the world's oceans by one degree Celsius, we are storing an extra 14,000,000,000,000,000,000 Calories -- or around 58,500,000,000,000,000,000 kilojoules. That is a LOT of energy in storage.

     OK. With each degree rise of temperature of the oceans, we store a lot of energy. What happens with that energy? Ah, that is where climate comes into play. Climate is concerned with the ongoing effects on the environment around us over a period of time. Patterns of rain, drought, snow, tornados, tropical storms, hurricanes, hail storms, cyclones, cold waves, heat waves are all affected by the energy within the water on the planet or within the atmosphere of the planet. More energy, more "energetic" weather. The energy is stored as heat but can be used as an intensifier for many types of weather patterns -- not just those associated with heat.

     Intensified weather means just that. Colder cold spells, longer and dryer draughts, more frequent and stronger tornados and hurricanes, air streams moved from "traditional" paths. All this means that "averages", including 50-year events or 100-year events are all up for grabs. They are in the process of change -- climate change.

Climate change and refrigerators: transfers of energy

     There is presently a mass of very cold air settling down over much of the Eastern coast and Northern (or the eastern 2/3 of the Northern) states of the United States. There have been shifts in the Arctic air mass before and there will be ones in the future. In itself, not that big of a deal although many people need to be extra careful with the unfamiliar conditions -- and, of course, the homeless need extra special care. This gets lots of headlines. What does not get headlines is the extra HOT weather occurring primarily in the Southern and Southwestern states of the United States.
     Ten years ago (or so) -- before the oil companies starting admitting that they had known about climate change for years -- there were lots of elected officials in the U.S. Congress trying to still keep business from having to change their daily protocols concerning energy. One such elected official brought in a snowball as a visual aid -- which got a big laugh -- although it actually had no relevance to the global situation.
     Why didn't it have any relevance? Let's start off with a more localized energy system -- a refrigerator (or air conditioner). A refrigerator cools off what is inside. Perhaps you have even felt tempted (or actually did it) to try to go inside the refrigerator when the room was too warm. But, have you reached around to the back of the refrigerator? It is hot there (be careful). The process of expanding and compressing the refrigerant gases within the tubing inside (nowadays, usually hidden) and the back of the refrigerator is a transfer of energy. Cooler inside, hotter outside. The same situation exists with an air conditioner -- the exit spot at the outside of the cooled location will be quite warm.
     On a global scale, what we have is more heat (primarily solar, some geothermal, and some direct combustion from old stored sources) being trapped than is being released. There is a balance of heat trapped and released. The primary location where the heat is stored is within the oceans.
     When we talk about climate change we are talking about what changes will happen all over the world. When we talk about global warming we are talking about the net balance between heat trapped and heat released. This can be most easily, and directly, measured by the ocean water temperature. This thermal balance is an indicator -- the precise effects are more difficult to determine because there are so many different factors interacting.
     The most immediate direct effects concern the heat sinks -- the oceans. Life in the oceans has adapted to a fairly small range of temperatures and steady, periodic, shifts. The coral ranges are showing huge, immediate, damage. The growth and patterns of plankton and other sea life is shifting. There are possibilities of current shifts -- which would more directly affect coastal land masses.
     But what about that snowball? What about that Arctic mass of air coming down? Note that an increase in the ocean temperature -- the indicator of thermal balance -- is a direct indicator of how much ENERGY is contained within the weather ecosystem. The more energy, the more activity. Stronger and more frequent storms. Stronger winds and different shifts of thermoclines (the water layers). Harder, faster, more energetic -- on balance hotter but with colder aspects at times also.
     One of the great positives of humankind is our adaptability -- and our ability to make use of tools and mechanisms (pyramids of tool usage) to be able to live in places where other species would die off before being able to adapt. However, this current shift is happening so rapidly that relocation and adaptation will push us harder than ever before. (It will also probably cause needs for shifts in disaster management and private versus public insurance situations).

May the Circle be Unbroken: full cycle cost analysis

     There are a lot of circles, or cycles, in life. The "Circle of Life" which moves between birth to death back to birth. The "Carbon Dioxide" cycle has CO2 arising from combustion (burning) of materials and then being trapped by living plants to strain it out of the atmosphere but providing the possibility of going back to the atmosphere when the "storage" is burned. Number three is a more "macro-" (big picture) view of recycling and reuse (as talked about in my other blog The Houseboat Philosophy). A fourth (which is the primary focus of this blog) arises from manufacturing. There are others.
     Manufacturing starts with a plan. The plan is based around a finished product. In order to complete the plan, there is a need of a list of components. Each component may be composed from individual parts, and the parts will be created from some original resource. Beyond the list of components, there is assembly/manufacturing, and then sales and distribution.
     The parts that occur between the harvesting of the raw materials and the sales and distribution are typically considered a "normal" aspect of business. A company may outsource (farm out, sub-delegate or sub-contract, etc) parts of the work but all of the parts, whether done directly by the company or not, are part of a "normal" manufacturing process. For many companies, this is the end of their process. However, it is not the end of the cycle. A cycle does not complete until everything is back to the beginning (though rarely EXACTLY the same for the next cycle).
     What does an incomplete cycle look like? With the CO2 cycle, we are seeing the effects right now. More absorbers (plankton in the ocean, trees and other plants on the land) are being displaced while historical (fossil fuels and some current biofuels and other combustibles) "fixed" carbon dioxide is being released into the air.
     In the case of a manufacturing cycle, the direct effect of not completing the cycle is pollution. If the company does not take care of it -- making it part of the product cost -- then it is taken care of by the taxpayers. This is a prevalent form of corporate subsidy -- and part of the reason why environmental laws and protection agencies are needed to prevent some corporations from offloading their costs to the general population.
     What methods are used for handling pollution? Recycling is certainly one method. Containment is another. Unfortunately, ignoring it is another common method which causes other, less direct, costs for health and medical treatment and loss of productivity for farmers, fisherpeople, and others who work within the global environment to produce food or provide recreation. Reduced fishing yields, enormous islands of plastic in the ocean, and a hazardous cycle of needing increasing amounts of pesticides/herbicides/insecticides to maintain crop production levels act as hallmarks of improperly handled pollution.
     In 1900, there was probably more pollution produced per person than there is now. However, since the population was approximately 1/5 of today's population, the total amount of pollution was less. Pollution was more concentrated around industrial areas. This created "dead areas" but, outside of the industrially concentrated sections, nature could largely handle the edge conditions and there were still areas which were able to be self-sustaining. With today's population and the spread of urban areas, there are few areas where nature is able to keep up with the demands upon the ecology.
     If a corporation is to sell products according to a full cycle cost analysis, then all must finish (for the single cycle) in as close to an original condition as possible. That extra cost is added to the price and the company takes on the responsibility for taking care of the pollution and side-effects of harvesting resources. Otherwise, the general populace pays the cost via taxes and deterioration of health and the environment. In either case, the cost exists.
     What other circles, or cycles, are important within your life? What happens if the cycle is interrupted?

The Luddite effect -- when the new does not transition the old

    In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in London, as part of the "Industrial Revolution", a group of workers in the textile industry started gathering together to fight against technical replacements for their labor. Their fear was based in reality. The textile industry in England was a large one within which a considerable portion of the workers earned their living. A mechanized loom might replace the manual efforts of dozens of women and men.
    Similar to the situations that often exist today, these people were hard-working and had developed their skills over their lifetimes and, sometimes literally overnight, there was no longer any market for those skills. The response -- a losing battle -- was to destroy machines, make threats to those who were instigating the changes, and disrupt the ability for the new factories to produce. Some historical accounts indicate that the leaders of the workers recognized that there was no way to defeat the change but wanted better leverage to provide retraining and support of the unemployed.
    Government response was primarily organized around protecting the new factories, their owners, and products. Severe laws were passed and a number of "show trials" were held with death or penal transportation/exile as potential penalties. These laws, in effect, did succeed in breaking the movement.
    Other areas of skilled labor were also displaced within the context of the Industrial Revolution. Although history books usually focus on the improved ability to manufacture goods (and decrease of prices for the average consumer), they do not often indicate the huge labor displacement which was a direct effect of the change.
    The Luddites provide a practical history lesson. Change is difficult for societies to adopt and it is particularly hard on those who have invested much time and effort on the old. If change is to happen (and it is difficult to avoid it) then the process of moving away from the old must be kept in mind.
    There are a number of changes currently going on in current times. One is semi-involuntary, one is semi-voluntary, and another is fully voluntary.
    Climate change is semi-involuntary. This is because it was probably avoidable but made difficult to avoid because of inertia of old methods of business. Although there is still the chance to make the change less severe, it has already made significant changes to the world. The Great Barrier Reef is close-to-death largely because of the increase in global water temperature. The glaciers continue to shrink around the world -- this is especially important in the Asian subcontinent where winter storage of water in snowpacks and glaciers provide water to billions of people. "100-year-floods" and "100-year-storms" are occurring more often as the water temperature rises.
    A semi-voluntary area of change is the shift from non-renewable energy sources. Since the change has to be encouraged, and pushed for, it falls into the voluntary category. It is reaching the tipping point where it is almost easier to use new, renewable, energy sources than to keep using the old ones. However, just as happened in the textile industry, it is very important to recognize, and assist, the people and families dedicated to the old energy systems. Solar panel factories located at old coal mines to allow easier transitions?
    A full voluntary area of change is the strong push towards greater and greater independent automation. Phones get smaller and more powerful. Robots can take over more manual labor in a programmable fashion (as opposed to dedicated design such as in the textile mills). Innovation and extensive education becomes more and more necessary for general job positions.
    Whether voluntary, involuntary, or a mixture of such, change requires preparation and assistance in moving from the old. The is a necessity for the change and, when it is forgotten, much suffering can occur as well as rebellion (isolated or global).
    What happens to the old when the new comes? This is an age old question but, with more rapid change comes the need to actively address the needs for migration, retraining, and restructuring.

GIGO: Garbage In and Garbage Out

     In the world of computer science, where a lot of acronyms were created (and still are), there was a term GIGO. GIGO is an acronym for "Garbage In, Garbage Out". This is a shortened version of saying that if what goes into a system (a computer, as one example) is not legitimate then it cannot be processed into an appropriate output. For example, a cruise control system takes into account current gear ratio, axle speed, tachometer reading, and so forth. If the cruise control believes that the car is moving at 100 miles per hour (60 kph) then it will do inappropriate things to the brakes and accelerator if, in reality, the wheels are spinning freely on a patch of ice and the car is not making any forward progress.
     If a data entry person (who are almost always touch typists -- not looking at the keys) had their hands at the wrong point on the keyboard as they entered data into a system, then things are not going to go well. You may get a $1,000 refund or you may get a bill for $10,000. In the first example, there is an assumption -- that the speed of the axles is a reliable indication of the speed of the car. In the second example, there is a lack of verification that the correct data are being entered.
     Data can also be wrong if the input instrument fails. If your thermostat breaks, then it cannot give proper information back to the processor that controls the oven temperature. You find out when the turkey comes out raw from the oven or the bread starts burning and catching on fire.
     Unfortunately, we are not always able to know, or immediately be able to be certain, that a problem has occurred. We may come up with a result that is completely false -- but we do not know that. This is why it is so important to have secondary, or backup, systems and studies to make sure that results are consistent. In the case of scientific studies, one study may be interesting and have results that may entice OTHER researchers to try to duplicate the study or try a different approach, but the results of the one study cannot, and should not, be relied upon on their own.
    In the past decade, the term GIGO has expanded a bit. It now is sometimes used for a situation where any type of inappropriate incoming conditions results in bad outgoing conditions. Eating "junk foods" is an example of this in the area of nutrition. If you eat foods that do not supply the appropriate "building blocks" (see my earlier blogs on nutrition) then it is difficult to build, and maintain, a healthy body. Another situation might be a building that is created with bad materials (inferior steel, poorly mixed concrete, lack of specified reinforcements, ...) and it collapses when a problem (perhaps an earthquake for which it was SUPPOSED to have been adequate) occurs.
     Another situation is more human-directed. That is falsification of data. In other words, people can (and do) sometimes lie. This may be for many different reasons -- they want different results to be true or they think that other results will bring them more attention (and funding) or they trust that no one will bother to cross-check the results.Two instances (I'm sure there have been more) of this have happened in the past decade -- one dealing with autism and vaccines and the other having to do with climate change. While it is difficult to be certain of the motivations, the results were considerable -- a loss of trust in vaccinations (and a rise in preventable illnesses and deaths) and possible delays in addressing environmental problems.
      In the area of politics, of course, this happens all of the time. A politician will say something and reactions and decisions are made based on what they say. If what they say is truthful, then those reactions and decisions have a better chance to be good ones. If what they say is not truthful, then it is unlikely the results will be good ones. Unfortunately, the rules of scientific studies are rarely followed in politics -- the facts may be researched but the results of those fact-verifications are either not seen, ignored, or misbelieved based on what the recipients want to have happen.
     A situation that lies between the two is the matter of data gathering for political purposes. Polls are used to reflect, and to influence, people's attitudes. However, a poll may gather data that is not representative and, thus, the results are not accurate. For example, if a poll only calls people on "landline" phones then the people who have only cell (mobile) phones will be excluded. It turns out that certain groups of people are more likely to have only cell phones -- thus the poll will be skewed away from the cell phone group and not be accurate. Or the poll could call people only in the evening hours -- and certain groups not present during the evening hours will not be represented. Or some people will filter out calls based on incoming numbers and so only those who do NOT filter their calls are represented in the poll results. It is more difficult than ever to get an appropriate poll base.
     Finally, a situation that combines computer science, politics, polling data, and cross-checking -- voting. There are two types of fraud that can exist in elections. One is voting fraud -- where someone who is not entitled to vote (or who is entitled to vote once but votes more than once) is able to vote. This situation sounds scary but actually does not happen a lot. The other is election fraud. This is where people who should be able to vote are prevented from voting, or their vote is changed such that the person/cause for which they are voting does not get credit (possibly giving it to the opposing situation). This happens much more often than voter fraud and appears to be increasing in volume. Both voter fraud and election fraud are instances of GIGO in the political arena. They are addressed in the same ways -- simplification (fewer systems or people between the voter and the recording of the vote) and cross-checking (paper trails for electronic voting systems, receipts for voting records, duplication of systems and verifying that both results are the same, ...). Unfortunately, people often decide to make things "easy" and "fast" which tends to increase the opportunities for election fraud.
     In what areas of life do you see the principle of GIGO operating? How do you, or would you, make sure that the information, on which you make your decisions, is correct?

Water Distribution : A Climate Change problem that needs to be addressed soon

   Climate change is just that -- a shift of weather patterns. It doesn't actually matter whether patterns change because of human activities or because of changes in solar flares or shifts in the magnetic core of the planet. It is thoroughly documented that the global ocean temperature is rising and photographs indicate an increasing loss of glaciers in polar regions as well as high mountain ranges.

   Humans have survived over the years because they are great at adapting to different living conditions. Humans can adapt to the current climate change if necessary. The problem with the current shift is that (in geologic terms) it seems to be happening so quickly. Effects are being noticed within a single lifetime rather than after generations. One serious problem that is arising is that of water distribution.

   Water distribution is very important for crop growth, animal husbandry, and basic survival. Politicians may hold snowballs for dramatic effect but, for every snowstorm, there is also a new heat wave and drought. It is likely that crops that have required a certain mixture of days of sunshine and amount of water will no longer have the conditions they require in that same region. So, shifts in climate brings along a need to change crop management and decisions as to what to plant.

   Problems of water distribution can be classified into five categories:

1. Storage. Much of our fresh water is stored in snowpacks and glaciers. During the spring, summer, and fall, they melt and provide new water supplies when rain is not present. As the glaciers of the Himalayas, Sierras, polar regions, and other ranges disappear, they will not be able to continue to provide fresh water supplies. Alternate means of storage are necessary. Huge reservoirs will be needed to take the place of the snowpacks and glaciers.
   
2. Rising Sea Levels. The amount of rising sea levels is unknown. If all of the snowpacks melt (including all of Antarctica) then a rise of over 200 feet is possible. This will drastically change our coastlines and many of our most populous cities are near the coastline. People will not just lose their beachfront properties but entire states and islands could vanish beneath the sea. These people will need to be relocated.
   
3. Redistribution. There may be as much total precipitation as ever. However, the locations where it comes down (as rain or snow) will change -- weather patterns and local climates will change. As mentioned above, this will require shifts in crop plantings (note that some areas will receive more rain while others receive less) as well as general harvesting and crop planning. Denser areas of human population will also be affected with needs of water transport and storage.
   
4. Aquifers. Much water is stored within layers of soil called aquifers. As droughts occur, or human population increases, water is removed from aquifers. This works fine as long as the amount removed is the same as that which filters back into the aquifers. In prolonged drought conditions, the levels of aquifers lower and lower. Wells run dry, deep rooted plants die, and the ability to bring the water levels back up start entering spans of decades. Aquifers are renewable but require management and continued rainfall.
   
5. Waste. In many areas of the world, fresh water is in abundance. In other areas, it has always been scarce. These areas will change and waste of water in formerly abundant areas will need to be greatly reduced. Three to five minute showers will be needed. Ground cover that survive with existing moisture will be needed.

   There is time to start planning for these needs and some may not be needed for decades but it is good to start the planning sooner rather than later.

What's in a Name: the politics and reality of global climate change

   When scientists discovered that the average temperature of the oceans was increasing, it was picked up by the media as "global warming". While I don't know whether this name was embraced by the scientific community or not, it wasn't a bad name -- at a scientific level. A much better name would have been "global ocean warming" -- for reasons to follow.

   A name is a powerful thing -- attitudes, and historical associations, come along with names. If a highly anti-patriotic thing is NAMED something patriotic then it is easier to associate it with positive, patriotic, meanings. This is just how our brains work -- we associate names with other things connected with the names. Politicians, Public Relations people, and advertising agencies make use of this to a great degree.

   If the word "global warming" is used then it can be MIS-used. If there is a huge snowstorm, it can be used as "evidence" that it is "obviously" NOT warming all over the globe. The more precise, and accurate, the word that is chosen, the more difficult it is to skew the interpretation. As mentioned earlier, it would be more difficult to misinterpret "global ocean warming" -- since a snowstorm is not immediately connected to the ocean (although it is actually true that the ocean warming might directly help the snowstorm to happen).

   Of late, the dialog has mostly changed to that of "global climate change". This is associated with the effect of "global ocean warming" -- but it seems to have been easier to migrate to this phrase than to expand upon the "global warming" media phrase. It is a reasonable phrase and much more difficult to subvert by politicians as there IS (unfortunately) increasing indications of global changes in the climate.

   The other part of the "discussion" (actually more of a taking of sides) -- beyond whether or not global climate change is happening -- is whether it has been caused by human activities. It will be impossible to totally prove this as that would require comparing two parallel worlds -- one world where changes in energy use and other human activities took place in a timely manner and comparing that to our current world.

   When historical evidence is examined, it shows how, and when, such global changes in climate have occurred before. This evidence does give us some ideas as to how various components (Carbon Dioxide in atmosphere, Ozone levels, water levels, average temperature, etc.) work together to change the climate and it does indicate how ongoing, present, changes are likely to affect climate. Politicians are correct that climate change has occurred many times over history. However, the rate of change of factors that have been occurring over the past 100 years has only been found in association with large scale catastrophes (huge volcano eruptions, widespread biologic changes, and so forth).

   This rapid change is the most scary part of global climate change. Humans are very adaptable. In fact, a great name for the species would be homo adaptabilis. If a desert turned into a a wetland over a period of a couple hundred years, people would adapt. In fact, much of the Sahara desert was once a tropical forest at one time (but the change was much, much slower). If the coastline disappears under water an inch a year, people will adapt. That is our current goal -- to slow down the rate of global climate change to allow people to move from one place to another, to allow changes in basic crops grown in an area, to allow people to change housing and energy use, and so forth.

   But, all of this is still an exercise in the dangers of allowing the media to choose a phrase to describe something. Insist on precision in descriptions. Refuse to use labels that are obviously inaccurate -- reverse it by saying "the so-called xxxxxxx". When a debate arises where one side is labeled as "pro-AAAAA" then insist that the other side be called "anti-AAAAA" rather than "pro-BBBBB"

   What misuses of labels have been the most upsetting for you?