Once upon a time, during a Google interview, I was asked to suggest a potential project in which I would be interested. As Google is so tightly involved with data, I proffered the idea of a world-of-work model. I talked about this issue in another blog about five years ago -- but, as no one has taken up the gauntlet, I will lay it out again. The needs (in my opinion) for such a model continue to become more important with the continued fast-approaching limits for control of climate change.
Meteorologists have a number of models of weather patterns. These models include time-constrained ocean currents, geographical terrain, and many other factors of which I am personally ignorant. The models do not include (as far as I know) the flapping of a butterfly's wings (see my blog on chaos theory). Use, and refinement, of these models has continued to improve as computational power, and data storage and access, has grown. But there are so many factors and even an accurate model needs a lot of real-time data items (what is the temperature right now above a large parking lot in the middle of Chicago? Is a factory in Illinois currently increasing the humidity of an area by vapor elimination?) to come out with the best results. Not perfect, or even perhaps "good enough", they continue to improve.
Think of a job -- any job. It will have needs and, presumably, other jobs will have dependencies upon it. Or think of a product -- any product. Products are made from physical parts and other people, used by various people, and must return to the earth in as gentle of a fashion as possible. This interdependency is the way our economy works. Not the way it is explained, or theorized, but the way it all works together and puts products on the shelf and food on the table.
What will happen if we change the economy from fossil fuel based to clean power based? What people will be affected? Where are they located? How can effects be minimized -- where should new factories be placed and people retrained to reduce the effect on the local economies?
(Something that would have been nice to have existed.) What happens if people stop traveling and have to work from their homes? What are the critical needs that must be filled? What portions of the economy will suffer most and what areas will be needed so much more that there is a dire shortage of appropriate people and materials?
Start with something very familiar to most of us -- a car. A car is made of many parts. Each part has to be manufactured and transported to the factory. The part will be created from various materials which must be manipulated by people and equipment. Materials must be either fabricated and/or mined and refined. All of these steps require energy -- for transportation/fabrication/mining. Each person involved in the factory, parts, transportation, or raw materials has a life which requires food, transportation, clothing, housing, medical needs, communication, entertainment.
As you can see, the matrix of interdependencies grows exponentially. It is likely that such a model would have to be done via AI methodologies. I would not be surprised if the manufacture, and maintenance, of a single car would involve many thousands of people -- perhaps a million.
A caveat of a model which includes various attributes such as salary is that one has to take into consideration whether an attribute is independent or interdependent. Most variables are interdependent. The cost of a part depends on current market conditions. An increase in salary will likely directly increase sales in other areas (the more there is to spend at the lower economic levels, the more that is spent). A numerical attribute in a person/part/material node of the model is more likely to be marked down as a formula -- similar to that used within spreadsheets.
The more I examine the needs of a world-of-work model, or a real-world economic model, the more details and interdependencies I can think of. Does this mean it is impossible? I am of the continued firm belief that if a person can think of something it can eventually be done. That doesn't mean it would be easy.
But would it be worth it? That, as often is the case, depends on the definition of "worth". I don't see how to marketize such a model but I can certainly see a lot of uses in a world that continually needs to change and a world that is continually changing -- whether or not people want it to. Climate change, pandemics, resource depletion, natural disasters (more and more often associated with climate change), any type of large scale change changes the world-of-work. Wouldn't it be nice to have some way to forecast what would happen with change? Even if it weren't completely accurate, it would give guidance.
