Instability: Causing searches for simple answers

     The world is complex. We have a lot of people cohabiting the planet. Everyone has legitimate concerns about having enough food, potable water, shelter, clothing, and that bit extra that makes life enjoyable to keep struggling with the challenges. Everywhere there is change and change is typically scary and a lot of it is not expected to move in an easy direction. It doesn’t appear that there is anyone trying to pave the road ahead before we start moving along.

     This — and a whole lot more — makes the world a stressful place in which to be. It also seems that there are those whose primary motivations are to make things harder and worse. So, it isn’t unreasonable that most of us are frustrated and many of us are angry. How to make things better? How do we keep our families sheltered, fed, clothed, and able to live to our potential?

     Wouldn’t it be lovely if there was a button over on the wall that will cure all problems and make the world a better place? Wouldn’t it be nice if there were simple solutions to our complex problems?

     But yes! There is a magician that exists who can do just that. Problems? Why sure, but they are caused by this group or that group — just get rid of them or severely restrict them and the problems will disappear. Problems with changes to the environment, technology, or work procedure and educational needs? Broadcast (or stream) funny programs, interviews, and programs that will make the magician seem to be the person to be able to easily address such. Better yet, make them all disappear! There are no problems with climate change because the magician says they no longer exist. There is no shift in automation and technology and all existing jobs will forever exist. Existing fossil fuel use does not affect the environment and it will last forever which means we don’t have to find other supplies. A wave of the magician’s wand and you can relax. Just hand over control and she or he, will handle everything. Worries are all gone.

     Doesn’t everyone feel better? And an awful lot of people do feel better — they have handed off responsibility and all will get better and — if it doesn’t — it certainly isn’t their fault. It is certainly tempting. I often spend a few minutes just sitting back and pondering how much easier it would be to hand my conscience and my morals and my general decisions over to another person. (And it is easier — it is just almost never “better”.)

     But, don’t look “behind the curtain”. You don’t want to know what the magician is really doing. You want to believe information that is issued that indicates everything is great again — and those potholes you encountered while driving no longer exist. And mostly — you do NOT want to know what directions the magician is taking things because, unless you are among the lucky and privileged few, things are going to get a lot worse.

     I love democracy but it is a pain in the rear. It takes time to listen to everyone and sit down and decide what meets almost everyone’s needs and, for those whose needs it does not meet, minimizes the negative effects. And, being aware of potential problems, the “Founding Fathers” knew that active participation in democracy requires education and the ability, and urge, to investigate things for oneself. Change is fast. Democracy, and group leadership, is slow.

     If part of the group is working hard to prevent working together, it becomes even slower — too slow. Things will keep getting worse faster than they can be addressed. Yet, there is no way to force those who want to obstruct discussion and avoid decisions to cooperate — that is not the way democracy works. So the magician looks better and better to the general public — and the groups who are obstructing tend to pick the magician that they want you to choose. This is called “populism”. It works well for them. They prevent democracy from working in its normal stumbling fashion and it makes people want the magic solution more and more. It can’t happen here? Unfortunately, it can, and it is happening in many places throughout the world.

     Is there a solution? Keep looking behind the curtain. Keep all the mess and process visible. Keep checking on what is said — especially if it reinforces “what you suspected was true” as it is so much easier to reinforce preconceptions. And be patient with each other and the process. Yes, it is a mess. Yes, it is slow. But yes, it really does have much better long-term results than placing the power in the hands of a magician who has to stay behind the curtain to fool you as to what is happening.

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Performance Evaluation: Does location matter?

 

     One aspect of remote/hybrid work that is of concern to a number of companies and/or their managers is "how do I know my teams are doing their work"? This is more of an emotional question than it is a quantitative question. The work is the same, the people on the team are the same, the objectives are the same. Evaluation of work -- while perhaps requiring use of different skills and methods -- remains the same whether in the office, remote on a desert island, or a hybrid of home and office.

     Evaluation is composed of two parts -- commitment and results. A commitment is something that is agreed to by all parties. One party CAN state what the end result, and time frame, should be but, without agreement by all parties, no reasonable evaluation can be made. (Perhaps, within this type of situation, the evaluation can only be made about the person, or team, mandating the commitment.)

     Once upon a time, I was given a project to do, with time frame, for something that had not been done before. After three weeks of research, it was obvious that the work could not be done in the original time frame. I reported this fact to my manager who was terrified to tell his manager (this person had most of the laboratory terrified -- whether they reported to them or not). I got the project done well and on time according to my revised estimates. My evaluation was not good. It was not a reasonable evaluation. A good way to destroy morale and effectiveness within an organization.

      One vital part of the commitment, to which ALL parties agree to, are the set of acceptance criteria. This is used to evaluate results. If the results satisfy the set of acceptance criteria then it was done well. If they do not, then deficits need to be evaluated to determine what the team could have done better or could do better in the future knowing such information. In this part, communication is key. Delays can be worked with -- but only if all parties are aware of the delay. Technical problems can be worked on with adequate communication and allocation of resources. With proper communication, there is no one "to blame" but it is possible to determine how well teams, and individuals, did within the process.

     Note that, within the above description, location of people and teams does not arise. That is because the location is not important. Nor is the process important -- waterfall, agile, lean six sigma, ... Communication is important. Honest evaluation and discussion is important. Location is not important.

     This applies to known current projects. What about future projects? Brainstorming? And, within current projects, how is communication facilitated, to keep the various people and teams working well with one another. That is another topic.

True consensus and the power of the micro-minority

     Many people use the word "consensus" as meaning a general agreement -- but that is not the original, or primary, definition. The primary definition includes the UNANIMITY of opinion. In other words, everyone must agree. Within the Religious Society of Friends (Quaker), consensus does still mean that -- everyone must agree -- but there is also the concept of "standing aside" such that a person who is not convinced that the majority is correct but is also not convinced that they are NOT correct can allow movement. They "stand aside" so that some decision, or action, can be made.
     But, if they feel strongly that the decision, or action, is the wrong one, then they can stop the action -- true consensus must happen. Throughout history, this situation has stopped Quakers from taking action on some items for a period of years or even decades. Sometimes, the final action is the opposite of what was originally expected -- the minority disappears as it is absorbed within the majority.
     Although the basis for this practice within Quakers is religious, the principle of the majority not always being correct applies throughout society. This is parallel to the stereotypical parent asking their child "if everyone decided to jump off a bridge, would that mean it was right for you to do it?"
     In fact, looking through history and science, this is the "normal" process. One person decides that slavery is wrong but the rest do not. Then a group shifts their viewpoint (and starts becoming vocal about their view) and more and more people change their view and -- at the end of the process -- almost all think that slavery is wrong. One person examines the solar system and skies and applies mathematics to the movements and decides that the Earth really isn't the center of everything -- starting with a minority of one and now almost (rarely ever everyone) everyone understanding that view.
     It isn't easy to be that beginning minority of one. Even in situations where such is explicitly allowed and encouraged, it takes a firm grasp on an individual position to stay there. This applies to scientific, business, and social situations. Failure may sometimes be considered a path to learn how to succeed but most people would rather be part of a supporting group than being the dissenting opinion.
     Those ultra-minority opinions are often suppressed -- sometimes with legal mechanisms -- more often with disparagement and attacks against the person and ideas. This can be done with the best of motives -- and it may be that the "majority opinion" proves to be the "correct" one such that that ultra-minority opinion SHOULD be removed. Various tricks and movements may be made to suppress the minority, or ultra-minority, opinion. Of course, it can also be done with malicious intent -- such as, within the Harry Potter series, Harry Potter's trial's time and location being changed and Dumbledore is "accidentally" overlooked to be informed.
     We often think of people being of majority/minority voices. If 5% believe X, then we think that 95% believe non-X. It seems to make sense, but it is more likely that 5% believe X, 15% believe non-X and 80% follow along with the perceived greater voice. This situation can be looked at as a silver lining or as a forecast of doom. Is it a matter of 80% being "sheep" and unable to make their own decision or is it a situation where 5% only have to convince another 6% in order to move the fulcrum to change the balance? Perhaps both are true. It is even possible that the 5% can shift part of the 80% and change the balance in that manner.
     Within a large group, a single individual can always have the potential to see things the most clearly.